The best conference championship game tonight, plus six other picks from the weekend-CBSports.com

2021-12-06 17:52:40 By : Mr. Michael Lee

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Congratulations on living till Friday afternoon. I don't know how you are doing this week, but for me this is one of the busiest weeks in a long time, and my life will only get busier this weekend. Now, I don't mean to complain. I enjoyed the chaos of college football this week, and I look forward to seeing what happens this weekend and what college football playoffs choose to do.

The team will make it easy for them, or will there be enough chaos to lead to difficult decisions? I support the latter.

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I also support all my choices to be a winner in this Football Friday edition of the newsletter because we can really use them. I have had a difficult week with the picks here, and it would be a mess if it weren't for our few passes. So let's end this week with a strong attitude and enjoy all the football that is coming. Let us also enjoy these stories.

Now there are nearly 2,000 words here to tell you what bet you should place this weekend.

All time Eastern, all odds pass Caesars Sportsbook

🏈 UTSA, Western Kentucky, 7pm | TV: CBS Sports Network

Draft: Western Kentucky -3.5 (-110): This is one of two divisional championship games on Friday night. Although the Pac-12 Championship between 10th in Oregon and 17th in Utah is a "bigger" game, there is absolutely no betting value. Seriously, I think it's because I want to include both games tonight. Fortunately, although I can't find anything there, I like the route in the American League Championship.

This is a rematch. In the first game, the Western Kentucky team led by 3.5 points in the home game against UTSA. That week, after watching Roadrunners beat my beloved Illini up close, I listed UTSA as the lock of the week in my weekly college football betting column "six". UTSA won the game 52-46, but the final score was misleading. Western Kentucky had 670 yards of offense in the game and scored the first goal in the final moments before the end of the interception.

That was the last time Western Kentucky lost. Thanks to one of the country's most explosive offenses and quarterback Bailey Zappe (Bailey Zappe), he has won seven consecutive wins since then. Hilltoppers are averaging 43.3 points per game (only Ohio State University has a higher average), and Zappe has completed 52 touchdowns-12 more than any other player in the country. Then there was UTSA, a team that I fell in love with, but a team that limped to the finish line.

In the first eight games of the season, UTSA's defensive success rate was 64.3%, with 1.42 points per possession. In the past four games, its success rate has dropped to 61.7%, and its points per round jumped to 2.37. Before the game against the Western Kentucky Offense, it’s not a good sign, even if the game will be held in San Antonio, it’s a situation where a team reaches its peak at the right time, and a ball that seems to reach its peak prematurely. team.

Main trend: WKU has an ATS of 7-3 in the past 10 away games.

The following is SportsLine's evaluation of this game: If you are more willing to trust a machine, SportsLine projection model also conducts in-depth research on this game. Learn about its ideas on SportsLine.

Saturday at 4pm, 1st Georgia vs 3rd Alabama | TV: CBS

Choice: Georgia -6.5 (-110) - Teams are like people: if you listen to them and see what they do, they will tell you who they are. Alabama has been telling you what it was all season. Alabama is a good team. This is one of the best teams in the country and can beat anyone. But this is not a dominant Alabama team. This is different from the standards we have seen for many Alabama teams that have won national championships.

This is why Nick Saban was so frustrated with fans before the Iron Bowl, and this is why he was so happy and relieved when Tide won.

I don't remember a Crimson Tide team in this dynasty that didn't have such a strong physical advantage on the offensive line. It appeared at the beginning of the season when it defeated Florida by a narrow margin, and was exposed in the loss to Texas A&M. It has more chances to play against Louisiana State University, Arkansas State and Auburn. Now, this offensive line is fighting the best defense in the country and the top seven, and I don’t like the chance of it sticking to it. I also don't think that Alabama's defense is not good enough to slow Georgia's offense to keep the distance they need.

Like Alabama, Georgia tells us who it was all season. This is the best team in the country. This is a dominant force, and we will all see the difference in Atlanta on Saturday.

Key trend: Georgia's ATS in the last 15 neutral site games is 11-4.

No. 5 Oklahoma vs. No. 9 Baylor, Saturday, 12 noon | TV: ABC

Draft pick: Baylor +5.5 (-110)-When the two met in the regular season, things weren't great. Oklahoma State University won the game with a score of 24-10, and Baylor's offensive distance was only 280 yards. If it weren't for the three errors of Oklahoma State University, it would be a blowout. Unfortunately, it's not as simple as saying "Oklahoma State University should win more victories, so let's deal with the Cowboys."

They are all different now-they are all better. Throughout the season, Oklahoma State University’s offense has improved, as has Baylor on both sides of the ball.

Now they meet in a neutral place, and Oklahoma State University beat Oklahoma State in Bedlam. I can't help wondering if the Cowboys have some kind of emotional disappointment that caused them to slowly walk out of the gate. There is also the Dave Aranda factor. He is one of the best defenders in this sport. When he attacks you again and knows what you want to do, I believe he can make a game plan to slow down the Cowboys. The score and physical fitness of this game will be very low, but the total score is a bit too low for me. Instead, I will win the Bears and points. None of these defenses will keep the other away.

Key trend: Baylor has been at a disadvantage with 13-4-1 ATS in the past 18 games.

If you want to see all of my college football selections this weekend, please find them in Six Pack.

Pirates of the Falcons, Sunday, 1 p.m. | TV: Fox

Choice: Pirates-11 (-105)-When it comes to betting on NFL games, my favorite thing to do is to bet on double-digit favorites, but the difference is not big enough. The Falcons' record is 5-6 and IN THE HUNT, but they are not a good team. Their five victories came from the Giants, Jets, Dolphins, Saints and Jaguars, and their overall record this season is 19-37. Their six losses averaged 20.7 points per game, including 25 points lost to the Buccaneers. Whenever the Falcons play against Super Bowl contenders this season, they will be criticized, and I don’t think the situation will change this weekend.

In the game against Indianapolis last week, the Buccaneers were a bit lucky, but they were also in a position that could not be taken lightly. The biggest benefit of the new playoff format-I think it will actually lead to more meaningful games-is that there is only one bye per meeting, and the Tampa team competes with the other four teams for that spot.

Key trend: Atlanta has a record of 1-4 ATS in the last five home games.

The Chargers for the Tigers, Sunday, 1 p.m. | TV: CBS

Choice: Charger +3 (-105) - Trying to find the charger every week is not the easiest task, but we found an interesting place here. My data tells me that the Bengals are slightly overrated here, which is understandable considering that they beat Pittsburgh 41-10 last week and beat the Raiders 32-13 a week ago. Nevertheless, although I think this Bengals is good, it is unlikely that it will remain at this level for longer. In the NFL, few teams can do this.

The Chargers lost on their way to Denver last week, but the Broncos are over. Goodbye. If you give Vic Fangio an extra week to prepare for you, he is fully capable of making a defensive game plan to make your life miserable. This is what he and the Broncos did. This week the Chargers should achieve greater success against the Bengals' defense and keep this game to a minimum.

Key trend: The ATS of the Bengals after the last 11 victories is only 3-8.

Roma vs. Inter Milan, Saturday, 12 noon | TV: CBS Sports Network The Pick: Inter Milan (-104) - My heart and wallet clash here. As a fan of Naples, I am very happy that Partenopei has been at the top of the Serie A standings so deep this season, but I can't help but believe that Inter Milan is inevitably climbing to the top of the list. Naples is dealing with some serious injuries, and Inter Milan is recovering. This is bad for my heart, but good for my wallet, because I led Inter Milan to win the league title before the start of the season. Inter Milan is definitely a mess now. In the past 16 games, they have only lost one, 11 wins and 4 draws. They did this with relentless attacks.

Inter Milan has scored 35 goals in these 16 games and the expected number of goals (xG) is 37.4, so this is not a fluke. They are definitely terrorists. They are facing a Roma team that performed well but did not start the season well. Roma has not beaten a team in the first half of Serie A since their first victory over Fiorentina of the season. Other than that, the best it managed was a zero-point draw against Naples. They have already lost five other opportunities. I'm not going to label Rome as a tramp for the time being, but it's not far away.

Key trend: Inter Milan has only lost one of the last 16 games.

Sampdoria vs. Lazio at 12 noon on Sunday | TV: Paramount+ The Pick: Over 2.5 (-130) - This may be the beginning of the relationship between our opponents in the Lazio game. Lazio is a club that was supposed to compete for a place in the Serie A Champions League, but due to poor defense, it is currently ranked ninth. Lazio scored 29 goals in 15 games, and only Spezia and Salernitana, two clubs that were lucky enough to avoid relegation, allowed more goals in Italy. Now they have done the job with the allowed 22.1 xG, so maybe bad luck, or goalkeeper Pepe Reina is 39 years old and continues his technical decline.

In any case, Lazio's game has always been a scoring holiday, because they scored as many points as possible. On Thursday, Udinese drew 4-4, but Lazio asked Naples to tie the score to 4 a few days ago. In all competitions, Lazio has scored an average of 3.4 goals per game in 20 games, of which 13 games have scored at least three goals. Lazio may be the new Leeds United team for this column.

Main trend: Lazio has averaged 3.4 goals per game this season.

🔒 SportsLine Daily Picks: Want to participate in some college basketball games on Friday night? Well, the SportsLine projection model can't believe the value it found in tonight's game between San Jose State University and North Dakota.

There is no basketball in today's letter. I feel a little sad, so this is a three-legged NBA clearance fee of +124.

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